Weather

Central 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
25
Low
 
26
Low
 
27
High
 
28
High
 
29
Low
 
30
 
 
31
High
 
1
High
Sep
2
Med
 
3
High
 
4
Low
 
5
Low
 
6
Med
 
7
Low
 
8
High
 
9
High
 
10
Med
 
11
Med
 
12
Low
 
13
Med
 
14
Med
 
15
Low
 
16
Med
 
17
High
 
18
High
 
19
High
 
20
Med
 
21
Low
 

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district

Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Issue Notes

Issued 23 Aug 2019

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, and New Zealand. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 August to 2 September, 4 September to 8 September, and 15 September to 19 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 September to 11 September, and 21 September to 25 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 August to 3 September, 4 September to 8 September, and 14 September to 18 September.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.