Weather

West Sth Coast 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
            25
High
 
26
High
 
27
High
 
28
Med
 
29
Low
 
30
Med
 
31
Med
 
1
 
Feb
2
Low
 
3
Low
 
4
Med
 
5
Med
 
6
High
 
7
Med
 
8
Low
 
9
 
 
10
 
 
11
 
 
12
Low
 
13
Low
 
14
Med
 
15
Low
 
16
Med
 
17
 
 
18
 
 
19
Low
 
20
Low
 
21
Low
 
 

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district

Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Issue Notes

Issued 24 Jan 2020

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 26 February to 1 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 January to 2 February, and 10 February to 14 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 February to 6 February, and 10 February to 14 February.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.