Weather

Lower South East 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
      22
High
 
23
Med
 
24
Low
 
25
Low
 
26
Low
 
27
 
 
28
 
 
29
 
 
30
 
 
31
 
 
1
 
Feb
2
 
 
3
Low
 
4
Med
 
5
Med
 
6
Low
 
7
Med
 
8
Low
 
9
Low
 
10
Med
 
11
 
 
12
Low
 
13
Low
 
14
Low
 
15
 
 
16
 
 
17
 
 
18
 
 
       

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district

Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Issue Notes

Issued 20 Jan 2020

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 January to 2 February, 5 February to 9 February, and 9 February to 13 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 January to 22 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 February to 7 February, and 11 February to 15 February.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.