Wet and stormy Monday for NSW

Craig McIntosh, 4 March 2018

Showers in the wake of a southerly change and a trough over the northeast will deliver a wet and thundery Monday for many parts of eastern and northern New South Wales.

A southerly change currently traversing up the NSW coast is staying mostly dry, however overnight and into Monday, showers are likely to be pushed across the coast as the winds shift a little bit towards the east. The showers will affect most of the coast, and push as far inland as the western slopes of the Great Dividing Range.

Further to the north, the deep trough that has been producing exceptional rain over a vast majority of Queensland will once again dip into northern NSW on Monday, just like it did on Saturday and will again today. The trough is already full of tropical moisture, and with the addition of southeasterly winds wedging a cooler airmass under the warmer air from the north, instability will increase and thunderstorms will be triggered.

These synoptic conditions are conducive to severe thunderstorms, and there is a risk some of these thunderstorms will generate damaging wind gusts greater than 90km/h, heavy rain leading to flash flooding and the chance of large hail greater than 2cm in diameter. Severe thunderstorms could form anywhere from the Hunter to the Queensland border and over the ranges to the western plains. There is a slight chance Sydney will see an early morning storm on Monday, but that window of opportunity is small.

Most of the coming week will be showery, albeit mainly light, for many parts of NSW east of the ranges. The thunderstorm action will make its way west across the top of the state over the coming days as a building high pressure ridge forces the trough westward. Unfortunately, it looks like most of southwestern NSW is in for a dry week, however another trough looks to cross the south around this time next week.

- Weatherzone

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