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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Mallee Rain Forecast


    Mallee 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    Low
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    Low
    26
    Low
    27
    Low
    28
    Low
    29
    Med
    30
    Low
    31
    Aug 1
    2
    3
    Med
    4
    5
    6
    Hig
    7
    Med
    8
    Med
    9
    Low
    10
    Low
    11
    Low
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 14 Jul 2020

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 July to 31 July, 4 August to 8 August, and 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 July to 1 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 July to 31 July, 1 August to 5 August, and 5 August to 9 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.