28 Day Rainfall Forecast
Western Rain Forecast
Western 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat23Hig24Med25262728Low29Hig30Med31Nov 1Low2Low3Med4Med5Med6Low7Med8Low9Med1011Med12Low13Low1415Low16Low17Low18Low19Low20MedCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 22 Oct 2020
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 October to 1 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 19 November to 23 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 October to 1 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 25 November to 29 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 October to 2 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 24 November to 28 November.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.