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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Midlands Rain Forecast


    Midlands 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    7
    8
    9
    10
    Med
    11
    Hig
    12
    Med
    13
    Hig
    14
    Low
    15
    Med
    16
    Hig
    17
    Hig
    18
    Hig
    19
    Med
    20
    Low
    21
    Med
    22
    Med
    23
    Med
    24
    Low
    25
    Low
    26
    Low
    27
    Low
    28
    Med
    29
    Hig
    30
    Hig
    May 1
    Low
    2
    Low
    3
    Med
    4
    Low
    5
    Med
    6
    Hig
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 7 Apr 2020

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 April to 17 April, 20 April to 24 April, and 26 April to 30 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 April to 25 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 April to 17 April, 27 April to 1 May, and 4 May to 8 May.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.