28 Day Rainfall Forecast
Riverland Rain Forecast
Riverland 28-day Rainfall Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat11Hig12Med13Med14Hig15Med1617Med18Low192021Low22Med23Low2425Hig26Low2728Med29Med30Low31HigSep 1Low234Low567Low8CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%
Issue NotesIssued 11 Aug 2020
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 August to 24 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 10 September to 14 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 August to 28 August, and 7 September to 11 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 20 August to 24 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 11 September to 15 September.Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.