28 Day Rainfall Forecast
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Gulf Country Rain Forecast
Gulf Country 28-day Rainfall ForecastSun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 26Low27Low282930Low31Nov 12345678910Low11121314Hig15Med16Low1718Low19Low20Low21Low22Low23CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNil< 25%Low25 - 50%Medium50 - 75%High≥ 75%Issue Notes
Issued 26 Oct 2020The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 November to 18 November, 23 November to 27 November, and 27 November to 1 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 November to 17 November, 18 November to 22 November, and 29 November to 3 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 November to 17 November, 23 November to 27 November, and 28 November to 2 December.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
