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28 Day Rainfall Forecast

  1. Lower Western Rain Forecast


    Lower Western 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    4
    5
    Low
    6
    Hig
    7
    Hig
    8
    Med
    9
    Med
    10
    11
    Low
    12
    Med
    13
    14
    Low
    15
    Med
    16
    17
    18
    Low
    19
    Low
    20
    Low
    21
    22
    Low
    23
    Hig
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    Sep 1
    Low
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    Nil
    < 25%
    Low
    25 - 50%
    Medium
    50 - 75%
    High
    ≥ 75%

    Issue Notes

    Issued 4 Aug 2020

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 August to 20 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 7 September to 11 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August, and 17 August to 21 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 August to 17 August, 18 August to 22 August, and 22 August to 26 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.