Weather

W & S Gippsland 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
      27
 
 
28
 
 
29
Low
 
30
Low
 
1
 
Jul
2
 
 
3
Med
 
4
Low
 
5
 
 
6
Med
 
7
Med
 
8
Med
 
9
Low
 
10
Low
 
11
Med
 
12
High
 
13
High
 
14
High
 
15
Low
 
16
Med
 
17
Med
 
18
Med
 
19
Med
 
20
High
 
21
Med
 
22
High
 
23
High
 
24
High
 
       

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district

Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Issue Notes

Issued 25 Jun 2018

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 4 July to 8 July, 18 July to 22 July, and 26 July to 30 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 June to 4 July. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 July to 8 July, 10 July to 14 July, and 15 July to 19 July.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.