" W & S Gippsland long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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There are no warnings current for the W & S Gippsland district.

W & S Gippsland 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
            26
Med
 
27
 
 
28
Low
 
29
Low
 
30
High
 
31
High
 
1
High
Aug
2
Med
 
3
Low
 
4
Med
 
5
Low
 
6
Low
 
7
Low
 
8
Low
 
9
Med
 
10
Med
 
11
Med
 
12
Med
 
13
Low
 
14
Low
 
15
Low
 
16
Low
 
17
Low
 
18
Med
 
19
Low
 
20
 
 
21
 
 
22
Low
 
 

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

W & S Gippsland district forecast
W & S Gippsland 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 4 August to 8 August, 8 August to 12 August, and 17 August to 21 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 3 August to 7 August, and 26 August to 30 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 July to 3 August, 5 August to 9 August, and 17 August to 21 August.

Issued 24 Jul 2014

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.