" W & S Gippsland long range forecast - 28 day rain days
Other Elders Sites About

W & S Gippsland 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    23
High
 
24
Low
 
25
High
 
26
Low
 
27
 
 
28
Low
 
29
 
 
30
Med
 
31
Low
 
1
 
Jan
2
 
 
3
Low
 
4
Low
 
5
Low
 
6
Med
 
7
Med
 
8
Med
 
9
Low
 
10
Med
 
11
Low
 
12
 
 
13
Low
 
14
 
 
15
Low
 
16
Med
 
17
Low
 
18
Low
 
19
 
 
         

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

W & S Gippsland district forecast
W & S Gippsland 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 December to 1 January, 8 January to 12 January, and 14 January to 18 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 10 January to 14 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 December to 1 January, 4 January to 8 January, and 14 January to 18 January.

Issued 22 Dec 2014

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.