" W & S Gippsland long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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W & S Gippsland 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
      3
 
 
4
Med
 
5
Med
 
6
Low
 
7
Low
 
8
Low
 
9
Med
 
10
High
 
11
High
 
12
High
 
13
Med
 
14
Low
 
15
Low
 
16
Low
 
17
Low
 
18
Low
 
19
Med
 
20
 
 
21
Med
 
22
Low
 
23
Med
 
24
High
 
25
Med
 
26
High
 
27
Low
 
28
Low
 
29
Med
 
30
Low
 
       

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

W & S Gippsland district forecast
W & S Gippsland 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 September to 12 September, 24 September to 28 September, and 2 October to 6 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 August to 4 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 September to 12 September, 23 September to 27 September, and 27 September to 1 October.

Issued 02 Sep 2014

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.