" W & S Gippsland long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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W & S Gippsland 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  27
High
 
28
Low
 
29
 
 
30
 
 
31
High
 
1
Med
Nov
2
Low
 
3
Low
 
4
Low
 
5
Low
 
6
Low
 
7
High
 
8
Med
 
9
High
 
10
 
 
11
 
 
12
Low
 
13
Low
 
14
Low
 
15
Low
 
16
Med
 
17
Med
 
18
Med
 
19
Med
 
20
 
 
21
Low
 
22
 
 
23
 
 
           

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

W & S Gippsland district forecast
W & S Gippsland 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 November to 6 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 28 November to 2 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 November to 9 November, 10 November to 14 November, and 15 November to 19 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 November to 9 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 28 November to 2 December.

Issued 26 Oct 2014

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.