" W & S Gippsland long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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W & S Gippsland 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
        30
High
 
1
Med
Jul
2
Low
 
3
Med
 
4
Med
 
5
High
 
6
 
 
7
 
 
8
 
 
9
Low
 
10
Low
 
11
High
 
12
High
 
13
Low
 
14
Med
 
15
 
 
16
Low
 
17
Med
 
18
Med
 
19
Low
 
20
Low
 
21
Low
 
22
Med
 
23
Med
 
24
High
 
25
High
 
26
Med
 
27
High
 
     

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

W & S Gippsland district forecast
W & S Gippsland 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 19 July to 23 July, 24 July to 28 July, and 31 July to 4 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 July to 9 July, 18 July to 22 July, and 28 July to 1 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 July to 13 July, 16 July to 20 July, and 22 July to 26 July.

Issued 29 Jun 2016

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.