" W & S Gippsland long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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There are no warnings current for the W & S Gippsland district.

W & S Gippsland 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  22
 
 
23
 
 
24
Med
 
25
Med
 
26
Med
 
27
Med
 
28
High
 
29
Med
 
30
High
 
1
Low
Oct
2
Low
 
3
Low
 
4
Med
 
5
Low
 
6
Low
 
7
Med
 
8
Med
 
9
Low
 
10
High
 
11
High
 
12
Med
 
13
Med
 
14
Low
 
15
Low
 
16
Low
 
17
Med
 
18
Med
 
19
High
 
           

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

W & S Gippsland district forecast
W & S Gippsland 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 September to 30 September, 8 October to 12 October, and 16 October to 20 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 October to 23 October, and 24 October to 28 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 September to 30 September, 2 October to 6 October, and 8 October to 12 October.

Issued 21 Sep 2014

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.