There are no warnings current for the Central North district.

Central North 28-day rainfall forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  2
Low
 
 3
High
 
 4
 
 
 5
High
 
 6
 
 
 7
 
 
8
 
 
 9
Low
 
 10
Med
 
 11
Med
 
 12
High
 
 13
High
 
 14
Med
 
15
High
 
 16
High
 
 17
High
 
 18
High
 
 19
Low
 
 20
 
 
 21
Low
 
22
High
 
 23
High
 
 24
High
 
 25
High
 
 26
Med
 
 27
Med
 
 28
Med
 
29
High
 
            

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%		 Low
25-50%		 Medium
50-75%		 High
≥75%

Central North district forecast
Central North 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, and the southeast Pacific. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 August to 13 August, 14 August to 18 August, and 30 August to 3 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 August to 16 August, 23 August to 27 August, and 30 August to 3 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 14 August to 18 August, 20 August to 24 August, and 31 August to 4 September.

Issued 31 Jul 2010

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.