" Adelaide long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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There are no warnings current for the Adelaide district.

Adelaide 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
21
 
 
22
 
 
23
Low
 
24
Med
 
25
Med
 
26
Med
 
27
Low
 
28
Med
 
29
Low
 
30
 
 
1
 
Oct
2
Low
 
3
Low
 
4
 
 
5
 
 
6
 
 
7
Low
 
8
High
 
9
 
 
10
 
 
11
 
 
12
 
 
13
Low
 
14
 
 
15
Low
 
16
High
 
17
Low
 
18
Low
 

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Adelaide district forecast
Adelaide 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 October to 13 October, 17 October to 21 October, and 21 October to 25 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 6 October to 10 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 September to 30 September, 9 October to 13 October, and 17 October to 21 October.

Issued 19 Sep 2014

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.