Weather

Adelaide 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
            21
Low
 
22
 
 
23
Low
 
24
Med
 
25
 
 
26
 
 
27
Low
 
28
Med
 
29
Med
 
30
Med
 
1
High
May
2
Med
 
3
High
 
4
Med
 
5
Low
 
6
Med
 
7
Low
 
8
 
 
9
Med
 
10
Med
 
11
High
 
12
Low
 
13
 
 
14
Low
 
15
Low
 
16
 
 
17
Low
 
18
 
 
 

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district

Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Issue Notes

Issued 19 Apr 2018

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 April to 4 May, 5 May to 9 May, and 11 May to 15 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 May to 6 May. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 April to 4 May, 5 May to 9 May, and 12 May to 16 May.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.