" Adelaide long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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There are no warnings current for the Adelaide district.

Adelaide 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
      30
Med
 
31
High
 
1
Med
Aug
2
 
 
3
 
 
4
Low
 
5
 
 
6
Low
 
7
Med
 
8
Low
 
9
 
 
10
 
 
11
 
 
12
 
 
13
 
 
14
Low
 
15
Med
 
16
 
 
17
Med
 
18
Med
 
19
Med
 
20
Low
 
21
 
 
22
High
 
23
Low
 
24
 
 
25
Low
 
26
High
 
       

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Adelaide district forecast
Adelaide 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 20 August to 24 August, and 26 August to 30 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 August to 22 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 August to 17 August, 22 August to 26 August, and 28 August to 1 September.

Issued 28 Jul 2014

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.