" Adelaide long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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Adelaide 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
      28
High
 
29
High
 
30
Low
 
1
Low
Oct
2
High
 
3
High
 
4
High
 
5
Low
 
6
 
 
7
Med
 
8
Low
 
9
Med
 
10
Low
 
11
Low
 
12
Low
 
13
Med
 
14
 
 
15
High
 
16
Med
 
17
Low
 
18
Med
 
19
Low
 
20
 
 
21
Low
 
22
Low
 
23
High
 
24
High
 
25
Low
 
       

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Adelaide district forecast
Adelaide 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 1 October to 5 October, 6 October to 10 October, and 17 October to 21 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 1 October to 5 October, and 7 October to 11 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 October to 5 October, 6 October to 10 October, and 14 October to 18 October.

Issued 26 Sep 2016

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.