Adelaide 28-day rainfall forecast
Adelaide district forecast
Adelaide 12-month rainfall forecast
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 February to 27 February, 14 March to 18 March, and 18 March to 22 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 February to 3 March, 6 March to 10 March, and 12 March to 16 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 February to 27 February, 10 March to 14 March, and 14 March to 18 March.
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This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.