" Adelaide long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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Adelaide 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
27
 
 
28
Low
 
29
Low
 
30
Med
 
31
High
 
1
Med
Aug
2
Low
 
3
Low
 
4
 
 
5
Low
 
6
Low
 
7
Low
 
8
Med
 
9
High
 
10
Med
 
11
Med
 
12
 
 
13
Low
 
14
 
 
15
Low
 
16
Med
 
17
Low
 
18
Low
 
19
Low
 
20
Med
 
21
Med
 
22
Med
 
23
 
 

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Adelaide district forecast
Adelaide 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 July to 3 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 21 August to 25 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 August to 24 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 July to 3 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 21 August to 25 August.

Issued 25 Jul 2014

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.