" Mid North Coast long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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Mid North Coast 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
      18
Med
 
19
High
 
20
Med
 
21
Med
 
22
Low
 
23
Med
 
24
 
 
25
 
 
26
 
 
27
Low
 
28
Low
 
29
Low
 
30
Low
 
31
Med
 
1
Low
Feb
2
Low
 
3
Low
 
4
 
 
5
Low
 
6
Med
 
7
Low
 
8
Low
 
9
Low
 
10
 
 
11
Med
 
12
Med
 
13
High
 
14
Low
 
       

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Mid North Coast district forecast
Mid North Coast 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 9 February to 13 February, and 14 February to 18 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 January to 25 January, and 18 February to 22 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 January to 3 February, 9 February to 13 February, and 15 February to 19 February.

Issued 17 Jan 2017

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.