Weather

Mid North Coast 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    12
 
 
13
 
 
14
 
 
15
Low
 
16
Low
 
17
Med
 
18
Med
 
19
Low
 
20
Med
 
21
Med
 
22
Med
 
23
Med
 
24
High
 
25
Low
 
26
Low
 
27
 
 
28
Low
 
29
Low
 
30
Low
 
31
Med
 
1
Med
Jan
2
High
 
3
High
 
4
Med
 
5
 
 
6
Low
 
7
Med
 
8
Low
 
         

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district

Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Issue Notes

Issued 11 Dec 2017

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 17 December to 21 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 9 January to 13 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 December to 22 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 17 December to 21 December, 25 December to 29 December, and 4 January to 8 January.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.