" Mid North Coast long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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There are no warnings current for the Mid North Coast district.

Mid North Coast 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
            31
Low
 
1
Low
Feb
2
Med
 
3
 
 
4
Low
 
5
High
 
6
Med
 
7
Med
 
8
 
 
9
Low
 
10
Low
 
11
Low
 
12
 
 
13
Low
 
14
Low
 
15
Low
 
16
Low
 
17
Low
 
18
Low
 
19
Med
 
20
Med
 
21
High
 
22
Low
 
23
High
 
24
High
 
 

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Mid North Coast district forecast
Mid North Coast 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 January to 24 January, 7 February to 11 February, and 15 February to 19 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 January to 31 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 4 February to 8 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 20 January to 24 January, 7 February to 11 February, and 16 February to 20 February.

Issued 15 Jan 2015

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.