" Mid North Coast long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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Mid North Coast 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  25
 
 
26
 
 
27
 
 
28
 
 
29
 
 
30
Med
 
31
Low
 
1
 
Aug
2
Low
 
3
Low
 
4
Low
 
5
 
 
6
Low
 
7
Med
 
8
Low
 
9
Low
 
10
Low
 
11
 
 
12
 
 
13
 
 
14
Med
 
15
 
 
16
Low
 
17
Low
 
18
Low
 
19
 
 
20
 
 
21
Low
 
           

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Mid North Coast district forecast
Mid North Coast 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 August to 6 August, 12 August to 16 August, and 20 August to 24 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 August to 15 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 July to 3 August, 12 August to 16 August, and 20 August to 24 August.

Issued 23 Jul 2016

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.