Weather

Mid North Coast 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
            24
 
 
25
 
 
26
 
 
27
Low
 
28
Low
 
29
Med
 
30
 
 
1
Low
Jul
2
Low
 
3
 
 
4
 
 
5
 
 
6
 
 
7
 
 
8
Low
 
9
Med
 
10
Low
 
11
 
 
12
 
 
13
 
 
14
 
 
15
 
 
16
 
 
17
 
 
18
 
 
19
Low
 
20
 
 
21
 
 
 

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district

Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Issue Notes

Issued 22 Jun 2017

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the south Pacific. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 July to 7 July, 9 July to 13 July, and 24 July to 28 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 15 July to 19 July, and 19 July to 23 July. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 July to 7 July, 9 July to 13 July, and 24 July to 28 July.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.