" Mid North Coast long range forecast - 28 day rain days
Other Elders Sites About
There are no warnings current for the Mid North Coast district.

Mid North Coast 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
        11
Low
 
12
Low
 
13
 
 
14
Low
 
15
High
 
16
High
 
17
High
 
18
Med
 
19
Low
 
20
Low
 
21
High
 
22
Med
 
23
Low
 
24
Low
 
25
Low
 
26
 
 
27
 
 
28
Low
 
29
Low
 
1
Low
Mar
2
 
 
3
Med
 
4
 
 
5
Med
 
6
High
 
7
Low
 
8
Low
 
9
Med
 
     

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Mid North Coast district forecast
Mid North Coast 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 21 February to 25 February, 4 March to 8 March, and 13 March to 17 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 15 February to 19 February, 20 February to 24 February, and 2 March to 6 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 February to 26 February, 4 March to 8 March, and 12 March to 16 March.

Issued 09 Feb 2016

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.