" Mid North Coast long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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Mid North Coast 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
          1
 
Aug
2
Med
 
3
Med
 
4
Med
 
5
 
 
6
 
 
7
 
 
8
 
 
9
 
 
10
 
 
11
 
 
12
Low
 
13
Low
 
14
Low
 
15
Low
 
16
 
 
17
 
 
18
 
 
19
Low
 
20
Low
 
21
Low
 
22
 
 
23
 
 
24
 
 
25
High
 
26
Med
 
27
Low
 
28
Low
 
   

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Mid North Coast district forecast
Mid North Coast 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 August to 20 August, 20 August to 24 August, and 24 August to 28 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 6 August to 10 August, 10 August to 14 August, and 22 August to 26 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 August to 16 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 23 August to 27 August.

Issued 30 Jul 2014

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.