" Mid North Coast long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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Mid North Coast 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
          3
 
 
4
 
 
5
Low
 
6
Low
 
7
Low
 
8
Med
 
9
High
 
10
Low
 
11
 
 
12
Low
 
13
 
 
14
Med
 
15
Low
 
16
Low
 
17
Low
 
18
Med
 
19
Low
 
20
Med
 
21
High
 
22
Low
 
23
Med
 
24
Low
 
25
Med
 
26
Med
 
27
Low
 
28
Low
 
29
Low
 
30
Low
 
   

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Mid North Coast district forecast
Mid North Coast 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and South America. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 October to 18 October, 20 October to 24 October, and 4 November to 8 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 6 October to 10 October, and 16 October to 20 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 14 October to 18 October, 28 October to 1 November, and 3 November to 7 November.

Issued 01 Oct 2014

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.