" Mid North Coast long range forecast - 28 day rain days
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There are no warnings current for the Mid North Coast district.

Mid North Coast 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
      22
Low
 
23
Med
 
24
Med
 
25
Low
 
26
Low
 
27
Med
 
28
Med
 
29
Low
 
30
 
 
31
Low
 
1
Low
Nov
2
Med
 
3
Med
 
4
Low
 
5
Med
 
6
Med
 
7
Low
 
8
Med
 
9
Low
 
10
Low
 
11
Low
 
12
High
 
13
High
 
14
Med
 
15
Low
 
16
Low
 
17
Low
 
18
High
 
       

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district 
Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Mid North Coast district forecast
Mid North Coast 12-month rainfall forecast
Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 October to 30 October, 13 November to 17 November, and 21 November to 25 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 October to 4 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 22 November to 26 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 October to 30 October, 16 November to 20 November, and 21 November to 25 November.

Issued 20 Oct 2014

Forecast    Current Conditions    Synoptic Chart    Satellite    Radar   

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.