Mid North Coast 28-day rainfall forecast
Mid North Coast district forecast
Mid North Coast 12-month rainfall forecast
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 21 October to 25 October, 4 November to 8 November, and 11 November to 15 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 October to 28 October, 31 October to 4 November, and 8 November to 12 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 October to 22 October, 7 November to 11 November, and 11 November to 15 November.
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This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.