Weather

Southern Tablelands 28-day rainfall forecast

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
21
 
 
22
Med
 
23
Low
 
24
Med
 
25
Med
 
26
Med
 
27
 
 
28
 
 
29
Low
 
30
Low
 
31
Low
 
1
Med
Feb
2
Med
 
3
Med
 
4
Med
 
5
Med
 
6
Low
 
7
Med
 
8
Med
 
9
High
 
10
Med
 
11
Low
 
12
 
 
13
 
 
14
 
 
15
 
 
16
Med
 
17
 
 

Chance of rainfall somewhere within district

Nil
<25%
Low
25-50%
Medium
50-75%
High
≥75%

Issue Notes

Issued 19 Jan 2018

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America. Summary: Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 January to 1 February, 5 February to 9 February, and 10 February to 14 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 January to 28 January, and 2 February to 6 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 January to 2 February, and 5 February to 9 February.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.